When USA Hockey launched the National Team Development Program (NTDP) initiative in 1996, the idea was to put a specific focus on developing the skills of the very best 16-and-17-year old hockey players in the country. The goal was to dramatically elevate the American program on an international scale and eventually, they hoped, to a place of somewhat equal footing with world superpowers like Canada and Russia. When Team USA advanced all the way to the gold medal final against Canada at the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver, much of USA Hockey’s hard work seemed to have finally paid off. Seven members of that squad were alumni of the NTDP, and that number became nine by the 2014 Olympics in Sochi, Russia.
Fast forward to the historic 2019 NHL Entry Draft, where a class dominated by the 2018-19 Under-18 team truly set the bar for the NTDP’s accomplishments. It started right at the very top of the draft with center Jack Hughes (the program’s career points leader), who went first overall to the New Jersey Devils. After Hughes came Alex Turcotte (5th) and Trevor Zegras (9th) as the NTDP’s other top ten selections, followed by Matthew Boldy (12th), Spencer Knight (13th), Cameron York (14th), and Cole Caufield (15th) one after the other before John Beecher (30th), as their last selection in round one, set a new program record for first round picks in a single draft at eight. Nine more U18s were chosen by various NHL teams in rounds two through six that year, bringing the grand total of drafted NTDP prospects to a single-year record of seventeen that still stands today.
So…what does that have to do with the current U18 crop? Well, as impossible as it may seem, there is an outside chance that the 2021-22 U18s could break one or both of those records during next summer’s 2022 NHL Entry Draft. There is a strong argument to be made for at least six current U18 prospects to be considered first round shoo-ins at this point, a group consisting of four forwards (Logan Cooley, Rutger McGroarty, Frank Nazar, and Isaac Howard) and two defensemen (Seamus Casey and Ryan Chesley). These six players had outstanding U17 campaigns that caught the attention of scouts and NHL GMs early on. Now, as they have entered the 2021-22 season as full-time U18s for the first time, the reports are in and the results speak for themselves. This is one hell of a talented group.
Let’s start with the “Big Six” of sorts I previously mentioned. Rutger McGroarty and Seamus Casey were fairly well-known commodities entering their NTDP debuts (Isaac Howard and Frank Nazar too, although to a slightly lesser degree), but Logan Cooley and Ryan Chesley were surprise stars who lit up the scoresheet and the eyes of many of the scouts who watched them play. It would be fair, at least in my opinion, to classify these six players as the U.S. program’s potential first round picks in 2022. Following a brief rundown of those six will be a list of “bubble” first rounders, or NTDP prospects who have a legitimate chance at a top thirty-two selection.
THE “BIG SIX”
Logan Cooley (Center)
Born: May 4, 2004
Size: 5’11”, 174 lbs.
2020-21 Statistics: (U17: 28gp-16g16a-32pts) (U18: 19gp-4g10a-14pts)
2021-22 Statistics: (U18: 7gp-5g4a-9pts)
The NTDP’s class of U17s for the 2020-21 season had been quite heavily hyped before stepping onto the ice for the first time at USA Hockey Arena, but Logan Cooley had not been at the forefront of the players mentioned. That is certainly not the case anymore. Cooley emerged as one of the top U17s as the year went along, putting up 16 goals and 32 points in 28 games before receiving a promotion to the spend the rest of the season with the U18s. The 14 points (4g10a) he contributed in 19 games with the older age group confirmed Cooley as a special talent within the prestigious NTDP.
He doesn’t necessarily have size on his side at 5’11” and 174 lbs., but Cooley has the desired combination of top notch speed, skill, and smarts to make up for it. His offensive game checks all the boxes: excellent shot, soft hands, playmaking vision, etc. Add in his value on special teams (he centers the team’s top powerplay and penalty kill units) and you’ve got the most well-rounded forward in the U18 group this year. Through the first 7 games of 2021-22 (he missed the first 2 with injury) he is tied for the lead in goals (5) among U18s. During the team’s matchups against college competition this season, Cooley has been their best and most productive player. That bodes well for his eventual career in the pros.
Rutger McGroarty (Center)
Born: March 30, 2004
Size: 6’1”, 204 lbs.
2020-21 Statistics: (U17: 34gp-17g18a-35pts) (U18: 19gp-3g3a-6pts)
2021-22 Statistics: (U18: 8gp-4g6a-10pts)
McGroarty entered the 2020-21 season with the most hype of any U17 player, with some reports calling him a potential top three talent in the 2022 draft. Though he recorded a solid 35 points (17g18a) in 34 games as one of only five players to score at a point-per-game rate, it was far less than originally anticipated and pointed out some underlying consistency issues. He didn’t fare any better in his 19 games with the U18s either, putting up just 3 goals and 6 points. His upside was still obvious and the point production strong enough to keep him as a first round projection for now, at least on most preliminary lists.
It is McGroarty’s overflowing toolbox that had scouts projecting him as a top three talent early on, as a 6’1”, 204-lb. natural center who can skate, shoot, and pass the puck is on the wishlist of every GM in the NHL. He’s extremely competitive and willing to do whatever it takes to help his team, whether that means moving to the wing or centering a shutdown line in the final minutes of the third period. While he has enough skill to make a difference on the scoresheet too, until he finds more consistency on that side of the puck he is safer to project as a middle-six pivot with top-six upside.
Frank Nazar (Center/Right Wing)
Born: January 14, 2004
Size: 5’11”, 175 lbs.
2020-21 Statistics: (U17: 45gp-28g27a-55pts) (U18: 2gp-2g1a-3pts)
2021-22 Statistics: (U18: 9gp-5g5a-10pts)
Nazar spent almost the entirety of his U17 NTDP campaign as a right winger and excelled with 28 goals and 55 points in 45 games, giving him the second-highest points-per-game average on the team (1.22). He was eventually called up to the U18 team for 2 games, scoring twice and collecting 3 points there too. This year, Nazar has been utilized primarily as a centerman and been brilliant in the role. Surprisingly, he was very strong at the faceoff dot right from the start and is now sitting tied for the team lead in goals (5) and tied for second in total points (10).
To me, Frank Nazar has not received the praise he truly deserves after such a fantastic 2020-21 season and his continued excellence as a U18 player in a relatively new forward position. He has a tremendously high level of skill and is able to beat defenders one-on-one with slick stickhandling moves and fakes, arguably better than almost anyone else in the entire draft. With his quick stick and instincts he is a sneaky puck thief who racks up takeaways and causes turnovers in the offensive zone. Plus, Nazar is an elite passer and deadly shooter who has recently added “versatility” to his sparkling resume.
Isaac Howard (Left Wing)
Born: March 30, 2004
Size: 5’10”, 183 lbs.
2020-21 Statistics: (U17: 34gp-27g27a-54pts) (U18: 17gp-5g14a-19pts)
2021-22 Statistics: (U18: 9gp-2g8a-10pts)
The most dominant offensive player among the U17s last year, Howard notched 27 goals and 54 points in just 34 games for a mindboggling 1.59 points-per-game average that puts his season among the best in the program’s history. Not only that, but he was the only U17 player to put up point-per-game or better numbers with the U18 team as he finished with 19 points (5g14a) in 17 contests. The 5’10” left winger is currently in a three-way tie for second in U18 scoring with 10 points (2g8a) in 9 games.
His size may be an issue for some GMs (that’s always a risk with smaller players), but his scoring prowess is sure to pique the interest of many as well. Isaac Howard does the majority of his damage down low around the front of the net using his quick hands and razor sharp instincts to pounce on any loose pucks or rebounds, ripping the puck top shelf with a perfectly placed shot, or putting a difficult pass right on a teammate’s tape with a good look at the net and some open space. For a comparable in playing style at least, there are some similarities to Patrick Kane.
Seamus Casey (Defenseman)
Born: January 8, 2004
Size: 5’10”, 162 lbs.
2020-21 Statistics: (U17: 46gp-8g28a-36pts)
2021-22 Statistics: (U18: 9gp-1g5a-6pts)
Seamus Casey was one of the earliest of the NTDP-bound prospects to be brought up in 2022 NHL draft conversations, and much of the talk revolved around his best feature: world class, NHL-ready skating. If he’s not the single best skater in this entire draft, then he’s one of the top two. Casey’s dynamic footwork, when paired with his top-tier passing and ability to read plays and exploit even the smallest weaknesses, maintains his effectiveness at both ends of the ice despite an undersized frame (5’10”, 162 lbs.).
Seamus Casey spent all 46 of his regular season games in 2020-21 with the U17 squad. Facing challenging competition in a typically low-scoring first year, Casey still managed to produce an impressive 36 points (8g28a) for a 0.78 points-per-game average. He has been even better through the first 9 games of the 2021-22 campaign, leading U18 blueliners with 6 points (1g5a) through a tough opening stretch that has included 4 games against college hockey clubs. He could very well end up being the “Quinn Hughes” of this draft, as he is on the same skyward trajectory right now.
Ryan Chesley (Defenseman)
Born: February 27, 2004
Size: 6’0”, 195 lbs.
2020-21 Statistics: (U17: 37gp-11g23a-34pts) (U18: 12gp-1g1a-2pts)
2021-22 Statistics: (U18: 9gp-1g1a-2pts)
Ryan Chesley’s current draft projections are all over the map. I’ve seen him as high as number two on one list, then not even ranked on another. I have him ranked 24th in The Draft Report’s Part 1 Rankings, but quite a few have him inside their top twenty overall. The reason for the varying opinions on him is likely the uneven performances between his play at the U17 level and the U18 level. Chesley put up incredible U17 stats last year with 11 goals and 34 points in just 37 games, but has just 2 goals and 4 points in 21 games with the U18 team split between 2020-21 and 2021-22.
There’s no doubting Ryan Chesley’s offensive ability, and his play over last year’s U17 campaign was deserving of all the accolades it received. He knows when to jump into the rush and make himself a passing option, and he can put the puck in the back of the net once he gets it. Out of all the top blueliners in this draft class, Chesley might be the best pure goal scorer. He’s got a lightning-quick release and isn’t shy about using it anytime he sees an opening. Until he starts producing as a U18 though, there will be doubters.
THE “BUBBLE” FIRST ROUNDERS
Cruz Lucius (Right Wing)
Born: April 5, 2004
Size: 6’0”, 177 lbs.
2020-21 Statistics: (U17: 42gp-14g28a-42pts)
2021-22 Statistics: (U18: 8gp-3g2a-5pts)
The younger brother of 2021 Winnipeg Jets first rounder Chaz Lucius (18th overall), Cruz has typically been known as more of a pass-first player but has been looking to change that this season by shooting the puck more often. The results haven’t really been visible on the scoresheet yet (3 goals and 5 points in 8 games) but he appears to be on the cusp of a breakthrough. He was one of just five players to score at a point-per-game rate last season, notching 42 points (14g28a) in 42 games.
Cruz Lucius has the same knack for scoring that his older brother does. He has tremendous hockey sense and awareness on the ice, though he lacks intensity at times and can go long stretches without being noticeable. With his skilled hands and IQ, he has the ability to be a gamechanger but scouts are hesitant due to perceived issues with his skating (the same criticisms Chaz received last year). He has looked fiery and determined most nights as a U18 this season, so it’s far too early to write him off as a potential first rounder just yet.
Devin Kaplan (Right Wing)
Born: January 10, 2004
Size: 6’3”, 199 lbs.
2020-21 Statistics: (U17: 46gp-13g26a-39pts) (U18: 2gp-1g2a-3pts)
2021-22 Statistics: (U18: 9gp-2g5a-7pts)
This 6’3” forward very nearly cracked the top thirty-two in my Part 1 Rankings for the 2022 NHL Entry Draft, and he still has plenty of time to mount a charge by the end of the year. Maybe the most criminally underrated of the current NTDP prospects, Kaplan has a superior defensive game to the mass majority of forwards in this class and is a brilliant skater for his size. I can definitely see Kaplan carving out a nice role for himself on an NHL team as a penalty kill specialist and big-bodied physical presence. Whether he will ever be a big-time scorer at the next level is hard to say, but he has all the tools to be a real threat in the offensive zone.
Kaplan posted a solid 39 points (13g26a) in 46 games during his U17 NTDP debut and looked great in a 2-game audition with the U18s, putting up 3 points (1g2a). This season, as a full-time U18, he has been used as the defensive conscience on a line with Frank Nazar and Isaac Howard but has recorded 7 points (2g5a) in 9 games too. So he’s no slouch in that regard. What’s keeping him from becoming a first round pick then?
Jimmy Snuggerud (Right Wing)
Born: June 1, 2004
Size: 6’2”, 186 lbs.
2020-21 Statistics: (U17: 45gp-15g17a-32pts)
2021-22 Statistics: (U18: 9gp-3g8a-11pts)
Don’t look now, but Jimmy Snuggerud is leading the NTDP U18s in scoring with 11 points (3g8a) in 9 games. The 6’2” winger rang off a terrific 6-game point streak to start the 2021-22 season, posting 10 points (3g7a). He has just 1 assist in 3 games since then though, which begs the question of whether he truly unlocked another level to his offensive game, or was it just a hot start? Only time will tell for sure, but Snuggerud finished his U17 campaign with 32 points (15g17a) in 45 games so this would be a significant jump up for him.
Jimmy Snuggerud is a very talented two-way player who provides his club with a ton of value. He’s big and strong with good hockey sense, great wheels, and an admirable work ethic in all three zones. With the way he has been playing so far this year, he could absolutely surprise some people by sneaking into the first round. I don’t expect he will be able to continue scoring at such a torrid pace, but there’s no reason he couldn’t finish around a point-per-game.
Cutter Gauthier (Left Wing)
Born: January 19, 2004
Size: 6’3”, 189 lbs.
2020-21 Statistics: (U17: 44gp-20g17a-37pts) (U18: 1gp-0g0a-0pts)
2021-22 Statistics: (U18: 9gp-5g3a-8pts)
Cutter Gauthier is a goal scorer above all else and the last time I checked, the team who scores the most goals is the team that wins the game. Only three U17s reached the 20-goal mark last season and Gauthier was one of them, recording 20 goals and 37 points in 44 games as one of his team’s top triggermen. That doesn’t look like it’s going to change anytime soon either, as he is tied for first among U18s with 5 goals in 2021-22.
He’s not the fastest skater, nor the most well-rounded 200-ft. player. He is, however, a big, strong winger with a power forward-style approach to the game, a lethal shot, and a slick pair of hands to score goals with. Cutter Gauthier is probably not going to be the kind of go-to player that some of his teammates are, but he has upside as a 20-plus goal scorer and powerplay contributor at the NHL level.
Lane Hutson (Defenseman)
Born: February 14, 2004
Size: 5’8”, 148 lbs.
2020-21 Statistics: (U17: 39gp-4g15a-19pts) (U18: 10gp-1g7a-8pts)
2021-22 Statistics: (U18: 9gp-0g5a-5pts)
Yes, Lane Hutson is only 5’8” and 148 lbs., so he will be facing an uphill battle to break into an NHL lineup one day. There are some scouts who truly feel that he could potentially pull it off though, and it’s true that his sublime level of skill should not be underestimated. He actually produced at a higher rate as a 16-year old with the U18s (8 points in 10 games) last season than he did with the U17s (19 points in 39 games), a rare occurrence to be certain. The risks are obvious, but one has to respect the talent.
Hutson is a gifted puckhandler with boundless energy and creativity. He especially terrorizes his opponents as a powerplay quarterback by utilizing his speed, mobility, and passing skills to draw defenders to him, therefore freeing up space for him to weave his playmaking magic. He excels at getting defensemen to bite on his fakes and little deceptions in the offensive zone, and he has the vision to see passing options emerge that others might not. That’s what drives his game and makes him a potent addition to any powerplay unit.
Maddox Fleming (Right Wing)
Born: February 13, 2004
Size: 6’0”, 179 lbs.
2020-21 Statistics: (U17: 39gp-10g20a-30pts)
2021-22 Statistics: (U18: 9gp-0g4a-4pts)
There were some sources who were projecting Maddox Fleming to be one of the NTDP’s elite as a U17 rookie in 2020-21, but his 30 points (10g20a) in 39 games fell a bit short of expectations. While those numbers alone weren’t enough to classify as “disappointing”, the fact that he has no goals and just 4 assists through his first 9 games with the U18s has been a further setback during the most critical year in a prospect’s development.
Out of all the “bubble” first rounders I listed here, Maddox Fleming is likely the biggest longshot (which is saying something with a 5’8” defenseman in that group). He’s a valuable penalty killer and clearly has an advanced understanding of the game, but that isn’t going to earn him a first round selection in the 2022 NHL draft. Fleming is going to need the numbers to back up his case.
The Draft Report 